Imagine the following: The de facto independent Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq declares independence, secedes from Iraq, and inspires Kurds in Turkey and Iran to join a “Greater Kurdistan.” Shi’ite Arab parties in Iraq follow suit and found a small, Iran-friendly country mired in tensions with Iraq’s Sunnis and other Arab countries. Fighting erupts not only over the disputed oil-rich Kirkuk in the north, but also among Shi’a and Sunnis, and among Arabs and Kurds, and Turkomans in all mixed cities and towns across what used to be Iraq. If the violence and chaos ever cleared up, Iraq would be split into two or more states, provoking tensions that threaten the security of the entire Middle East.
Despite the emergence of a pro-Iranian ministate, this is probably the worst-case scenario in the minds of Tehran’s foreign-policy makers.
Of course, this drastic scenario appears far from likely as Iraq votes for a new parliament on March 7. But unless Iraq develops mechanisms for managing ethnic and sectarian tensions, it cannot be excluded that Shi’ite Arabs, Sunni Arabs, and Kurds could begin to move in different directions.
Two possible developments in particular could provoke such a trend. Consolidating their power in parliament and the government, major Iran-friendly Shi’ite groups could further try to alienate and exclude Sunni groups, and Sunni Arabs could respond with increased insurgency and violence. Or, emboldened by their kingmaker role and favorable election results, the Kurdistan Alliance — consisting of the two main Kurdish political parties — could become more aggressive in its bid to incorporate Kirkuk into the Kurdish region.
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