Forget about all the fiery speeches at Teheran’s Friday prayers and the headlines of the daily Kayhan: “Hamas will win at last!” And Ali Larijani, speaker of the Iranian parliament says: “Israel started the war, but they won’t be those who end it” (means they will lose, as they did in Lebanon). “Those who resist (the enemy) for God’s sake will win.” Will they? What about the military balance and strategic positioning of the parties, the manpower, the support they have, the organization and management of the confrontation? They will win just so, only through the will? And: did Israel really lose in Lebanon? Was the whole destruction of Lebanon without major human or technical loss of the Israelis a victory for Hezbollah? And: is Hamas representing God’s will? What about other Gazans not supporting Hamas? What about Fatah, or other Arabs opposed to Hamas, or Turks, or Indonesian Muslims? What about Iran — not the government, not the leader or the ministers or those who are mobilized to join the Friday prayers, but the majority, the people, the mass?
The majority, those in cities working 10-14 hours a day to make the ends meet, or those living in villages, or those going to schools, women at home, those above the age 60 or so, the big majority of Iranians do not care much about things that are not directly related to their daily lives. Foreign policy, Israel, U.S., Russia, Europe … all that is for them important mainly to the extent it effects their real lives. U.S. foreign policy becomes a hot issue if talk is about a military attack that would cause death and destruction or blockading gasoline imports into Iran that would hinder their movement and transportation.
From Disinterest to Peaceful Sympathy
But there are many, mainly in cities, mainly among middle and upper classes, students, teachers, government employees, educated people sympathizing with an Iranian, but Westernized way of life and thinking (and not necessarily with Western policies) who are interested in politics in a wider sense. They are interested in knowing what happens in the world, especially in their neighborhood, in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Middle East, but also in the U.S., Europe, and Russia, because they know Iran is not isolated from its geographical and political context. Most of them are more interested in what they perceive as “Iran’s interests” that most of them believe are not (or just poorly) represented by the Islamic Republic. They mostly believe that the Islamic regime has isolated Iran, has made more enemies than friends, especially among those countries (in the West) that are so vital for Iran’s development and prosperity, both economically and politically, but also in many more areas such as education, health system, travel, and social services.
The Israeli-Palesinian conflict is a special category among issues not directly related to Iran’s domestic issues. Most of the people, even if you ask an elderly mother of three from Shiraz (what I recently did), sympathize with Palestinians not because they love Hamas, not because they are opposed to Israel as a state or nation, but because of what they believe Israel has done to the Palestinians with occupation, land confiscation, prevention of a state-building, and military actions. The fact that Palestinians are also Muslims just strengthens their feelings. The notion that the Iranian regime is so forcefully pushing in the minds and hearts of the citizens, one that Iranians should fight for the Palestinian “cause,” that “their struggle is our struggle,” or even the purely propagandistic slogan of the recent days, “Up to Gaza to fight!,” can hardly be comprehended, let alone supported, by the majority. The regime has made its political, financial, and military support for Hamas and Hezbollah to a tool to unite the majority of Iranians under its own leadership, and to isolate all others. Here the Islamic Republic, Hamas, Hezbollah, maybe Syria, to some extent, and there, on the enemy side the rest of the world. They would fight and win. And if they lose, they would become martyrs and win at last. But it seems 30 years of this ideologic and religious propaganda has not been effective.
Among all the hundreds of emails and SMS messages I have seen coming from Iran (admittedly mainly from rather young, educated individuals), I have observed a surprising lack of deep interest in the Gaza conflict. At least looking at those rather few reactions, one can see a sympathy, a feeling of sorrow for the suffering of the Palestinians (and accordingly anger at the actions of Israelis), but no interest for the “cause” of Hamas, no ideological or racial or religious hatred against Israel or a call for its destruction. The Gaza offensive has certainly further damaged the image of Israel and the U.S. in Iran and in many other, especially Muslim countries. One can imagine that a continuing escalation would further deepen this gap. But I do not anticipate a trend of totally confrontational approach that the government in Teheran would love to see in the society.
One slogan that came up twice in SMS messages, something I heard has become quite popular, was: “Falastino rahaa kon, fekri be haale maa kon!” (“Forget about Palestine, do care about us!”). Maybe, just maybe the way most of the people think. But who knows? We all can just guess as long as free opinion polls are not permitted.
